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Short-term adjustment to wait for the policy guidelines
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, Zinc market trend review
With the quantitative easing policy in the United States in early November the dust settles, the overall systemic risk affecting the metals market, the domestic central bank to curb inflation, to suppress liquidity to the State Council, National Development and Reform Commission for excessive speculation is strictly prohibited and then to the European debt crisis once again the outbreak of the market long and short change overnight. Still "oversupply" of refined zinc market, winter really come?
I believe that, in the context of inflation and economic good recovery, mid-zinc prices still rising channel, and the weakness of the systemic risk in the short term as well as the fundamentals of risk makes the zinc price is still down, but the domestic money market control means or will be the signal into the market to do more.
Second, the future macro-surface analysis
1. Dollar rebound
During the year, the dollar still continue on the red power.
First, U.S. political, and economic side is not conducive to the dollar continued to fall. The end of the mid-term Congressional elections in the United States, the Republican Party to a greater advantage to regain dominance in the House of Representatives in early November. Fed loose monetary policy is unlikely, and due to the sharp early fall has been basically digested adverse news of quantitative easing, implementing policies no longer downside risk. From an economic perspective, the most important employment data appear in the last month, signs of stabilization, either the PMI index or the consumer confidence index have to stand on more than 50 points, means that the U.S. economy is picking up. Therefore, the political face of economic recovery in the United States does not support the U.S. dollar continued to depreciate down.
Second, the European debt crisis and the potential inter-Korean issues. Throughout history, the dollar rebounded sharply often and crisis, the financial crisis or war crisis, the strength of the dollar in the first half of the year mainly due to the outbreak of the debt crisis in Greece. The militarization of the upgrade of the recent inter-Korean issues between the two countries will also lead to war may be imminent market investors must first dollar aversion, the crisis will be the second factor to boost the dollar.
Third, short-term technical patterns broken bits. Early November low of U.S. $ 74 o'clock in the history of the U.S. dollar has a relatively low level, the dollar there is a strong rebound in demand in this interval, and the view from the rebound, the dollar index has broken through the top of the downward pressure on the line, and station on the golden section line along the 80.5, up form to maintain good, and viewed from above, the whole pressure level No, MACD continue to diverge upward, red bars larger trend, KDJ index high divergence, good overall technical maintained. Although the continuous rise in the need to adjust, but the technical rise is expected after adjustment will continue.
Based on the above three points, we believe that this wave rebound of the dollar may face technical adjustments, but during the year or even early next year, the overall trend of the dollar's rally to remain for metal prices may have a relatively large impact.
2. Suppressed by the domestic policy side.
Recent policy adjustments, whether vegetable or from the overall liquidity of the market speculation have been significant cooling, but due to the end of last year to lower the overall CPI in the beginning of this year, which makes the probability of the next two months, the tail is increase, and one-year central bank bills rate has reached 2.8145, higher than the one-year deposit interest rate of 2.5%, showing Forced trend. The overall liquidity flooding and CPI may be a new high context, do not rule out government control policies, then the market has again been suppressed.
In summary, the view from the year, the overall macro background, but this turning point in the suppression or to be incurred after the central bank to raise interest rates or more severe price pressure policies will have a more significant role in the suppression of metal prices or when The market may show the opportunity to do more.
Third, zinc fundamental analysis
1. Domestic production increased significantly
From the second half of the domestic production of refined zinc, showing a "V"-shaped transition, a record high in October. Energy conservation, power cuts affect makes the beginning a lot of the company's overall operating rate is very low in the second half of the year, overall discontinued production capacity of 600,000 t / year, Love monthly rate of about once a month 12% capacity cut-off thus lead to a decrease in production, continued with the sharp rise in zinc prices, so that the zinc corporate profit margins increases, resulting in a large number of zinc smelting enterprises operating rate rise. This is not a good sign for the already oversupply of refined zinc industry. Therefore, in the short term, the refined zinc oversupply pattern will increase the role of zinc enterprises more obvious, but with the 12th Five-Year Plan to construct roll-out of new production, as well as the elimination of backward production capacity, we are refining the recovery of zinc fundamentals optimistic.
2. Consumption into the off-season
Domestic social stock of Statistics data show that domestic refined zinc stocks still maintained a trend of continuous increase, and at historically high levels. Therefore, the overall domestic consumption is still very weak trend, although the pre countries the sell-off of 50 000 t, but I believe that this is just the countries as a means to curb inflation, not zinc market supply shortages. With the onset of winter, refined zinc into the the traditional consumption off-season, some areas due to transportation, weather and other reasons will cause some shortages, but overall consumption of zinc winter spurt consumption is not possible, so refined weak consumption of the zinc market situation in the short term can not be effectively improved for refined zinc prices will have a greater upward pressure.
3. "Destocking" there is still a long time
Both at home and abroad, the overall inventory still remains at historically high levels. The the world metal structure WBMS published data show that the first nine months of 2010, the global zinc market oversupply 292000t oversupply is growing. From the canceled warrants in September hit a new high of more than 60,000 t shown a downward trend the current overall canceled warrants about 30000 tons, illustrating the market's the consumption overall lack of confidence for the future. Therefore, the high inventory will continue to limit the increase in the price of zinc.
Fourth, the market outlook judgment
In view of the fundamentals and the macro side, the combined effect of short-term zinc price is still some risk of falling, But in the long run, inflation expectations and good domestic economic growth is still optimistic about the upside of the zinc price. Recommend investors to short-term maintenance interval oscillation operation of ideas, may be appropriate to short rallies, waiting for the government to raise interest rates or other appropriate regulatory policies bargain than a single intervention, while continuing to be concerned about the the zinc price difference fluctuations in liquidity strong and basic weakness, the price difference is still widening possible

                                    
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