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Currency war affect the non-ferrous metal prices?
A major event in the economic life is within the scope of the global currency war. The so-called currency war, in fact, is the world's major economies, as much as possible to promote the devaluation of the national currency to stimulate exports, more jobs and economic growth. The source and the main force of this currency war, the U.S. government in an attempt to obtain the significant economic and strategic interests, this led to the world battle to defend their own interests.
Monetary outcome of the war, from the five aspects ferrous metal prices pushed up prices.
The first is the continued sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar, pushing up prices in the international market directly. As mentioned above, the United States is the instigator of this currency war. Objectively compelling, and actively promote the subjective, the U.S. dollar continued to sharp depreciation of the situation in the future is inevitable. Short term, vs. a basket of currencies, the dollar index fell to near the 60 mark, even greater decline. Also, because the U.S. dollar as the main unit of account and trade settlement currency of the commodity in the international market situation, the short term is difficult to change, so the dollar sharply lower bound directly push high international market, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel and other non-ferrous metals and their smelting raw material prices.
The second aspect is the "double-edged sword" effect of the appreciation of the renminbi. Because some of the factors in this currency war, the RMB will appear more substantial appreciation. The statistics show that since June 19, China's central bank has decided to further enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, less than four months (October 14), the RMB against the U.S. dollar cumulative appreciation of nearly 2.5 percentage points. Which last month's appreciation of 1.2%. Current and future expectations of RMB appreciation has been formed, and more and more intense. Expected during 2011 the U.S. dollar and the RMB exchange rate may see 1:6, or even higher level.
For major non-ferrous metal smelting raw material prices, RMB appreciation is a "double-edged sword. Although the appreciation of the renminbi currency unit purchasing power, the metal smelting raw material import costs can be reduced greatly ease the current cost upward pressure. At the same time, however, the purchasing power of RMB Unit, non-ferrous metals market for the international market, is a great encouragement. For example, in mid-September this year, the central bank announced enhance the RMB exchange rate floating range, led to the domestic and international non-ferrous metal prices rose in response. Therefore, the RMB appreciation ability will reduce China's non-ferrous metal smelting the prices of imports of raw materials, or an uncertain factor. Lies in its appreciation for the decline in import costs, the ability to completely offset the depreciation of the dollar, the influx of "hot money" price increase of the purchasing power of the excitation. Judge from the trend in the future, this situation is not optimistic. In the "double-edged sword" effect of the appreciation of the renminbi, the effect of pushing up prices may be greater than the effect of lower prices.
The third aspect is the appreciation of the commodity currencies, the need to raise the sales prices to reduce losses. Generally speaking, the current global context of national currencies can be roughly divided into four categories. Is the U.S. Dollar Currency; and the other European currencies, mainly for the European currency; Then there is the Asian currencies, such as East Asia, Japan, South Korea, Japan, Singapore and other countries currency; Finally, Australia, Brazil and other large export resources commodity currencies of the countries.
Good resource commodities in Australia and other countries export situation in the national currency, revenue increased significantly. In order to protect themselves from inflation, forced to raise the level of interest rates, which led to the sharp appreciation of the local currency. The idea that in accordance with the current trend continues, the Australian dollar and the U.S. dollar exchange rate may reach 1:1. Australian dollar, the real currency appreciation, will make the national territory of mineral resources of the enterprise products, such as copper concentrate, bauxite, coal and other product sales suffered exchange rate losses have to be compensated by increasing the sales price.
The fourth aspect of a large number of hedge currency into the field of commodities, a significant increase in the demand for preservation of the purchase. In fact, debt, abuse of printing money is not only the United States, are also common in the euro-zone countries and some other countries. Monetary outcome of the war and the competing countries in the currency devaluation. In this case, also the holders of money for national bank notes (bonds) do not trust the atmosphere. Affected by a considerable part of the currency into the commodities sector, including non-ferrous metals, including investment hedge, triggering a period of time related to the field of commodities hedge, hedging sharp increase in purchase demand, significant price increases. Market. The data show that since the United States announced the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy to promote the depreciation of the dollar, the international market all kinds of non-ferrous metal prices were skyrocketing.
Expected future currency war "smoke", non-ferrous metals in the field of preservation of the purchasing needs increase, or even to increase dramatically. For example, Japan will take advantage of the huge foreign exchange reserves, the worldwide panic buying resource products (including resource interests), some other countries will do the same. It is worth noting, financial, increasing the demand for the purchase tends to spread to the private sector, for example, the process of non-ferrous metal prices in the preceding period, in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces, China appeared the many farmers buy cellaring nickel, copper and other nonferrous The metal case. Swarmed in all aspects of safe-haven currency, "elephant stepped into the tub, domestic and non-ferrous metal smelting raw material prices can be imagined.
The fifth aspect is the speculative capital took the opportunity to hype the price quotes to the extreme. These four areas, constitute an important basis for future non-ferrous metal smelting raw material prices firm Ascension. On this basis, the speculative capital Xieguo hundreds of billions of funds to take advantage of the hype, its market price to the extreme. The data show that the global foreign exchange market daily trading volume reached $ 1.5 trillion, all kinds of non-ferrous metals and smelting raw material commodity futures and spot market trading capital is also huge. These funds are fast-flowing, waves, and non-ferrous metal smelting raw material prices is bound to volatility. Pursuant to expect during the year 2011 we are likely to see higher price the price of copper, aluminum prices, the price of nickel, zinc prices. London copper prices may impact the $ 10,000 / ton mark.
China is many non-ferrous metals in the international market, especially the smelting of the most important buyers of raw materials, non-ferrous metals (including processing materials) manufacture high degree of dependence on imports of raw materials, an average of more than 40%. The international market of non-ferrous metals smelting of raw materials rose sharply, of course, will increase China's nonferrous metals and raw materials import costs, and to improve China's non-ferrous metal manufacturing costs, pushing up the overall market price level. If in the future any major unforeseen circumstances, such as major political events, some countries levy taxes, and even restrictions on exports of raw materials, non-ferrous metal prices rose in China is likely to greatly exceed expectations.
Thus, by the double impact of increased demand and cost, non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel prices in the future is still upward shocks, has kicked off a global currency war will further increase its rise in the driving force. Therefore, the non-ferrous metal prices in the future even if there is a callback, it is only a temporary situation. This market trend must have a clear understanding, plan ahead, and actively prevent, can not be taken lightly as part of the processing and manufacturing overcapacity, not because of the non-ferrous metal smelting raw material prices temporarily callback blindly optimistic.
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